Air Force
Men - Women
2016 - 2017 - 2018
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RankNameGradeRating
42  Mickey Davey JR 31:27
60  Andrew Johnston SR 31:33
97  Jacob Bilvado JR 31:45
194  Jimmy Shipley SR 32:08
361  Nathan Thomas JR 32:34
395  Noah Riley JR 32:38
423  Andrew Tankersley JR 32:41
442  Patrick Sullivan SO 32:43
477  Andrew Milliron SR 32:46
573  Marshall Wheeler SO 32:58
National Rank #20 of 315
Mountain Region Rank #6 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 98.6%
Most Likely Finish 18th at Nationals


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.8%
Top 10 at Nationals 10.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 73.1%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 36.1%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Mickey Davey Andrew Johnston Jacob Bilvado Jimmy Shipley Nathan Thomas Noah Riley Andrew Tankersley Patrick Sullivan Andrew Milliron Marshall Wheeler
Woody Greeno/Jay Dirksen 09/16 1090 33:05
Joe Piane Invitational (Blue) 09/29 464 31:29 31:22 31:56 32:00 32:32 32:38 32:38 32:17
Rocky Mountain Shootout 09/30 1124 32:58
Nuttycombe Invitational 10/13 492 31:24 31:30 31:51 32:03 33:21 32:32 32:49
Mountain West Championship 10/27 453 31:36 31:17 31:41 32:09 32:12 33:05 32:42 33:41 32:51
Mountain Region Championships 11/10 442 31:20 31:43 31:32 32:04 32:35 32:24 32:13





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 98.6% 17.0 455 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.3 3.8 5.0 4.6 6.6 7.0 6.9 6.3 6.5 7.4 6.9 5.5 5.8 4.7 3.9 2.7 3.1 1.8 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.3
Region Championship 100% 5.6 152 2.8 9.0 24.3 51.9 10.4 1.6 0.1



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mickey Davey 99.2% 46.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.7
Andrew Johnston 98.9% 58.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.7 1.3 0.5 1.3 1.5
Jacob Bilvado 98.8% 85.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1
Jimmy Shipley 98.6% 142.9
Nathan Thomas 98.6% 203.7
Noah Riley 98.6% 208.8
Andrew Tankersley 98.6% 213.4


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Mickey Davey 16.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.5 3.7 3.9 3.8 4.2 5.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.5 2.1 3.0 2.8 2.9
Andrew Johnston 19.7 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.3 4.0 4.3 4.5 5.3 5.1 3.7 3.6 3.9 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.8 3.5
Jacob Bilvado 25.6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.0 3.8 4.4 3.7 4.7 4.5 3.4 4.3
Jimmy Shipley 36.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.6
Nathan Thomas 51.2
Noah Riley 52.7
Andrew Tankersley 54.6




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 2.8% 100.0% 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 2.8 3
4 9.0% 100.0% 4.9 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 9.0 4
5 24.3% 100.0% 13.3 6.9 3.6 0.6 0.1 24.3 5
6 51.9% 100.0% 27.1 15.2 7.6 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 51.9 6
7 10.4% 97.6% 3.8 2.5 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 10.2 7
8 1.6% 34.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.6 8
9 0.1% 0.1 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 98.6% 1.3 6.0 16.3 35.0 23.0 10.9 3.7 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.0 98.6




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Texas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.8% 1.0 1.0
Iona 97.0% 1.0 1.0
Iowa State 95.0% 1.0 1.0
Minnesota 88.2% 1.0 0.9
Washington 71.7% 1.0 0.7
North Carolina St. 69.1% 2.0 1.4
Illinois 56.1% 1.0 0.6
Washington St. 42.1% 2.0 0.8
Utah State 39.2% 1.0 0.4
Eastern Kentucky 38.0% 2.0 0.8
Penn 37.5% 1.0 0.4
Boise State 37.1% 2.0 0.7
Alabama 34.6% 1.0 0.3
Wisconsin 26.1% 1.0 0.3
Florida State 23.7% 2.0 0.5
Purdue 22.8% 1.0 0.2
San Francisco 20.6% 1.0 0.2
Tulsa 7.9% 1.0 0.1
Eastern Michigan 4.6% 2.0 0.1
Columbia 4.0% 1.0 0.0
Virginia 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 1.0% 1.0 0.0
California 0.4% 2.0 0.0
Kentucky 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 0.3% 1.0 0.0
Total 12.3
Minimum 7.0
Maximum 19.0